By Andrew Hunt

Keep an eye on Representative Ron Paul, a Republican congressman from Texas.

He’s a libertarian who wants to scale back just about everything: government, the military, social programs, American interventions overseas.

Last month, Paul surprised many seasoned political observers when he won the Conservative Political Action Conference’s presidential straw poll, a clear sign of the 11-term congressman’s popularity on the right. His stunning victory dismayed his two main Republican rivals, Massachusetts’ ex-governor Mitt Romney and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

Paul, you may recall, was a long shot in the 2008 elections. The Republican party establishment opted for the safe candidate, John McCain. Unfortunately for them, McCain failed to mobilize the party’s conservative base and he proved less-than-inspiring in the eyes of most independents.

These days, you hear a lot of talk south of the border about the rapid rise of the Tea Party Movement, the nationwide, grassroots protest struggle opposed to rising taxes, government bailouts and the policies of President Barack Obama.

Within that movement, a struggle for the soul of conservatism and the Republican party is underway. Palin and Romney represent the social conservative wing of the movement, the ideological heirs to George W. Bush.

But a growing segment of the American right is uneasy with social conservatives. Bad memories of Bush’s misrule linger. The president and his Republican supporters failed to decrease the size of the federal government. Worse yet, in the eyes of many on the libertarian right, Bush’s administration and its allies in Congress were as supportive of the multi-billion dollar corporate bailouts as President Barack Obama and the Democrats.

It is difficult to say whether Paul’s surprising victory in the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll last month is an omen of things to come. These days, Republican leadership consists mostly of social conservatives and neo-conservatives who have little use for Paul’s brand of libertarian politics. They may chant the mantra of “smaller government,” but they don’t necessarily walk the walk.

By contrast, Paul’s uncompromising libertarianism has put him at odds with Republicans as much as Democrats. For years, he has championed a non-interventionist position in the area of foreign policy. He wants troops out of Iraq. He has called for an end to the embargo against Cuba, a Cold War-era relic whose demise is long overdue. He has been an outspoken critic of the War on Terror.

If elected president, Paul plans cut taxes and drastically reduce the size of government. He is a staunch believer in free speech, the right to bear arms, and the right of same-sex marriage. He has opposed the USA Patriot Act.

The traditional Republican leadership is opposed to Paul’s unwavering libertarianism and will not go down without a fight. They’ll likely do everything in their power to derail Paul’s candidacy. The battle for the soul of the Republican party is just beginning.

But Paul has managed to inspire armies of young men and women, Republicans and independents alike. Two years ago, when he ran for president, I observed one of his rallies in Utah, which attracted a sizable crowd of his supporters. These men and women waved at passing cars, carried signs and passed out literature.

At this and other similar gatherings across the country, Paul’s supporters have been mostly ordinary working- and middle-class folks. They see in Paul a fearless congressman who speaks boldly against abuses of power in both parties and hopes to steer the United States in a new direction.

This man is truly a force to be reckoned with in American politics.

Andrew Hunt is an associate professor of history at the University of Waterloo.